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2006 PREVIEW:AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRALby Stan Koczkodaj Chicago Blue Knights (108-54, 1st place, AL Champ)
Key Departures: A.J. Pierzynski (C), Mike Redmond (C), Todd Helton (1B), Todd Walker (2B), Casey Blake (3B), Manny Ramirez (LF), Jerry Hairston Jr. (2B), Jay Payton (CF), Mike Lamb (1B), Frank Thomas (1B), Brian Lawrence (SP), Brett Myers (SP), Mike Timlin (RP) What must go right: It’s a different kettle of fish this year in the Windy City as the Blue Knights have undergone a bit of a transformation. It is a team with greater balance, an improved defense and bullpen, yet still capable of producing big innings offensively. A number of very talented players left this team as a result of free agency. Other players were moved in an effort by GM “Trader” Alan Lecher to fine-tune his Blue Knights for a chance to return to the postseason and another shot at the big prize that eluded them last year in the SPIBL World Series when they fell to Detroit 4 games to 1. 2005 Cy Young winner Johan Santana (23-8, 2.58, 303 K) and fellow 20-game winner Pedro Martinez (20-10, 4.07, 246 K) are the enviable one-two punch in the starting rotation once again, followed by Rodrigo Lopez (14-4, 3.74). Expect more of the same from those three. The key to this pitching staff is how well former Pittsburgh Conspiracy starters Tim Wakefield (8-10, 5.49) and Kip Wells (3-9, 5.95) fill the shoes vacated by Brian Lawrence and David Wells. They must be capable of handing leads to an improved bullpen that once again includes reliable Juan Rincon (2.11, 31 SV, 11-6) with support from Scott Linebrink (2.39, 1 SV, 10-5, SDB), potential closer Danys Baez (4.41, 1 SV, NYA), rookie Michael Wuertz, and lefty Aaron Fultz (8.13, TEX). It is difficult to replace players like Manny Ramirez, Todd Helton, Frank Thomas and others that have departed from during the off-season. Yet the Blue Knights have not missed a beat by acquiring players like Pat Burrell (.262, 27 HR, 73 RBI, MIL), Carlos Lee (.257, 24 HR, 88 RBI, SEA), Tony Clark (.170, 9 HR, 18 RBI, OAK), Ivan Rodriguez (.304, 16 HR, 92 RBI, SDB), and Randy Winn (.305, 12 HR, 76 RBI, 41 SB, PIT). It is likely that the chemistry of these players is such that the lineup should continue to provide an explosive offensive attack in typical Blue Knight tradition. What could go wrong: The eyes of baseball will be watching spots three through five in the Blue Knight starting rotation from Opening Day on. If Rodrigo Lopez, Tim Wakefield and Kip Wells do not provide quality starts consistently, expect GM Lecher to sound the siren and make the timely in-season moves that he is known for to remedy the situation. The joker in the deck is that he will have to do this with a payroll that is right at the salary cap; not impossible, but it may limit his options. History says that he’ll find a way. The X-Factor: It’s called balance. Chicago has not really lost all that much offensively, while gaining defensively and improving the bullpen. Pat “The Bat” Burrell will catch many balls that would have eluded the beloved Manny Ramirez; Ron Belliard is a huge defensive upgrade at 2B over Todd Walker; David Bell, Alex S. Gonzalez, and Travis Lee will bring defensive help in the late innings for the offensive-minded Melvin Mora, Julio Lugo and Tony Clark. Randy Winn and Ivan Rodriguez are textbook definitions of elite players at their positions. Numerically speaking: Chicago was 37-17 within the AL Central Division last year and finished 26 games ahead of the runner-up Milwaukee Maulers. That type of performance would provide great comfort in 2006 as the other teams in this division have greatly improved. There may actually be a race in this division in 2006. Houston Black Dogs (57-105, 4th place)
Key Departures: Jose Castillo (2B), Adam Everett (SS), Tony Batista (3B), Johnny Damon (CF), Jacques Jones (RF), Carl Everett (LF), Esteban Loaiza (SP), Scott Elarton (SP), Tony Armas Jr. (SP), Jim Mecir (RP), Travis Harper (RP) What must go right: Houston can only go up after a 57-105 log in 2005 that saw them finish 51 games behind the division-leading Blue Knights. This is a team that will definitely be better in 2006. The question remains HOW much better? The team has improved to the point that many baseball experts now see the Dogs as contenders for the top prize if the equally revamped roster of reigning division champion Chicago somehow falters. New blood in Houston means a revamped outfield. The addition of one player can change the complexion of any team and that player is named Vladimir Guerrero (.339, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 23 SB, PIT). Vlad “The Impaler” brings a whole new offensive dimension and leadership to this young Houston team. Colorful and dependable Johnny Damon is gone, replaced by the one-man defensive highlight film, Torii Hunter (.265, 20 HR, 84 RBI, 34 SB, DET), who also swings a mean stick. The addition of rookie speedster Willy Taveras provides Houston with two gold glove-caliber players in center field alone! Luis “Gonzo” Gonzalez, a free agent signing, will provide lefty pop after missing all of 2005 with an injury. As if Guerrero wasn’t enough, Houston also acquired enigmatic and talented Alfonso Soriano (.237, 28 HR, 76 RBI, 19 SB, ATL) to hold down second base and provide all-around offensive punch. The Black Dogs again doubled their pleasure by adding another 2B Mark Loretta (.349, 16 HR, 71 RBI), coming off a huge year with the Stars. Lyle Overbay (.263, 7 HR, 41 RBI) was acquired to provide much-needed punch at first base, with highly touted rookie Mike Jacobs ready to make a name for himself in the near future. Houston had talent in the pitching staff last year – the problem was that injuries decimated its more talented members and limited their effectiveness. Andy Pettitte (DNP, injured), Josh Beckett (6-9, 4.70), and Mark Prior (3-11, 6.02) are expected to be in good health in 2006 with workhorse-like innings also expected from Brandon Webb (11-16, 4.00) and newcomer Carl Pavano (14-17, 3.57, DET). Bullpen depth will be provided by veteran Bob Howry (6.04, 1 SV, ATL) and young Chris Ray. Aaron Heilman, a starter in the minors, will provide strong support and Kyle Farnsworth (10 IP) has shown signs that he may be ready to assume the primary closer role. While change is the name of the 2006 Black Dogs, there are strong holdovers among the team’s position players this year. Brad Ausmus (.203, 7 HR, 30 RBI) and John Buck (.265, 10 HR, 33 RBI) return at catcher while Jose Reyes (.310, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 16 SB) and Jason Lane (63 AB) are expected to play key full-time roles this year after limited action last season due to injuries. Shea Hillenbrand (.303, 18 HR, 102 RBI), a first baseman in 2005, may shift to 3B to compensate for Tony Batista, who chose to play in Japan this year. Houston has retained his rights should he decide to return. What could go wrong: Not to worry. At the very least, this team will be .500-plus. The only “letdown,” if it could be called that, is if this team contends and misses a playoff spot. Even if that happens, the Houston Black Dogs have improved by light years from the team that it was just one short year ago. All of that would be just fine with GM Larry Spencer and the Houston faithful. The X-Factor: Houston may just be, hands down, the most improved team in SPIBL and could actually give the Blue Knights a run for their money, if not a good scare. Nothing to lose and everything to gain, this team should be loose and hungry with a talented nucleus of young players that will make them a solid contender for the next few seasons. Keep an eye on rising stars Edwin Jackson, Doug Waechter, and Josh Hancock. Numerically speaking: Like many teams, a fair number of players left Houston via trades and free agency this winter. GM Larry Spencer has pulled off a balancing act where he actually replaced most of them with better players via draft or trade. Milwaukee Maulers (81-81, 2nd place)
Key Departures: Carlos Zambrano (SP), Pat Burrell (LF), Mike Lowell (3B), Brian Schneider (C), Rocco Baldelli (CF) What must go right: The old cliché holds true that this team will go as far their pitching will take them. In 2005, Carlos Zambrano won 19 games for the Maulers and was a true staff ace, while Mark Mulder suffered through a disappointing 11-17 campaign. Mulder (11-17, 4.03) must take charge and be the leader of this young staff that also features solid young starters Noah Lowry (4-5, 5.40), Mike Maroth (14-8, 4.51, TOR), and Kyle Lohse (DNP). Workhorse Brian Moehler, late bloomer Aaron Small, minor-league star Jonathan Papelbon, all new to the team, will certainly help. Rocco Baldelli (.270, 27 HR, 82 RBI, 21 SB) is expected to miss this season due to an off-season injury and his output will be missed. Other offensive holes were created by the departure of Pat Burrell, Ryan Freel, and 3B Mike Lowell, who had an incredible season last year hitting .323 with 41 HR and 121 RBI. Maulers GM Rich Magnanti did a great job of upgrading the vacant positions by bringing in MVP runner-up Manny Ramirez (.317, 57 HRs, 161 RBI, CHA), Garret Anderson (.284, 14 HR, 63 RBI, ATL), solid SS Orlando Cabrera (.225, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 18 SB, OAK), and the always-potent Chipper Jones (.227, 12 HR, 44 RBI, BAL). Other positive additions include Jacques Jones (.222, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 12 SB, HOU) and Robb Quinlan. Let’s not forget that big Dave Ortiz (.269, 36 HR, 113 RBI) is a returning part of the offensive mix along with Ichiro Suzuki (.352, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 47 SB). This team is going to score some runs! While gaining overall offense, the quality of their team defense has slipped a bit at a few positions, although it may not matter. Rag-armed Michael Barrett (.285, 11 HR, 41 RBI) inherits the primary catching duties and has a tough act to follow in departed textbook field general Brian Schneider. Backup Gary Bennett (.255, 2 HR, 17 RBI, PIT) will provide relief in the late innings. Fortunately, many of the Milwaukee pitchers are very good at holding runners and will help this tandem behind the plate. What could go wrong: Beside the defensive weakness at catcher, other concerns may be the back end of the rotation. It is solid but far from spectacular. The middle relief corps is in similar rough standing. Much will depend on who wins specific roles out of spring training. The Maulers will definitely score runs. The concern here is that they do not relinquish an equal or greater amount of runs before newcomer Chad Cordero (3.08, 3 SV, TOR) has a chance to nail down a game. The X-Factor: Despite any nit picking about pitching and defense, Milwaukee has the potential of being an offensive dreadnaught! When you have a lineup that starts off with Ichiro, Anderson, Chipper, Manny and Ortiz, you possess the ability to bludgeon other teams into submission on a regular basis, all other factors being equal. Numerically speaking: The Milwaukee Maulers, who finished with a .500 record last year, were another team in the AL Central with high roster turnover. The Maulers are better than a .500 team thanks to an offense that has improved greatly and the addition of a young reliever that will probably be a lights out closer in Cordero. The Maulers will cause some sleepless nights for Houston and Chicago. They are that good. Expect them to be in the mix for the division crown in 2006. Texas Missions (73-85, 3rd place)
Key Departures: Derrek Lee (1B), Jim Thome (1B), Tom Gordon (RP) What must go right: With a significant amount of impact players (Derek Lee, Jim Thome, Tom Gordon, Arthur Rhodes) leaving this past winter, new GM Chan Lane made the acquisition of players with long-term potential a priority. Kenji Johjima (Japan import), Justin Morneau (.288, 21 HR 60 RBI, TOR), Ryan Shealy (R), Mark Ellis (injured, DNP), Brian Anderson (R), and Kameron Loe are all rising stars. At the same time, holes in the roster had to be filled with solid players like Brian Lawrence (10-6, 4.55, CHA), Phil Nevin (.273, 25 HR, 69 RBI, PIT), Todd Pratt, and Mike Redmond (.271, 3 HR, 25 RBI, CHA). This new wave of players will have to gel with quality returnees like Brady Clark (.294, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 29 SB), Austin Kearns (.257, 16 HR, 40 RBI), Chone Figgins (.279, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 24 SB), Pedro Feliz (.351, 6 HR, 31 RBI), Royce Clayton (.266, 7 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB), Juan Rivera (.308, 11 HR, 58 RBI), and Paul Lo Duca (.325, 16 HR, 85 RBI), coming off a nice year. The improved starting rotation, led by Lawrence and Aaron Harang (6-12, 7.54), is solid, but lacking a clear ace in the bunch. It also includes Horacio Ramirez (5-2, 5.18), Daniel Cabrera (9-9, 7.46), and Gil Meche (5-6, 7.27, NYA). Rookie Loe has the flexibility of being a very good starter or reliever for the Missions. The rest of the bullpen appears to be potluck. Somehow, Texas must find the “magic beans” that will help their bullpen take over for the starting pitchers and preserve leads or it will turn into a very long season. It is understandably a rebuilding year of sorts in a tough and improved AL Central, however Texas is composed of talented young players that will get better each year. On given days, this team will score some runs and win some games, but perhaps not quite as explosively as last year’s team. A good year to learn the ropes and build some momentum for continued improvement into future seasons. What could go wrong: The Missions really have nothing to lose. One concern would be the weak state of the bullpen. If the starting rotation performs less than expected, then it could be an early curtain for this team. In that case, the Missions may have to gut it out, fully declare it a rebuilding year, and then move on to 2007. The X-Factor: The Texas home ballpark favors hitters rather than pitchers. In 2005, pitching was this team’s soft spot, with the exception of Ted Lilly (12-9, 4.25) and departed closer Tom Gordon. While the starting pitching has improved, the bullpen remains lackluster and without leadership. There is no real closer to turn out the lights late in a game. Numerically speaking: Texas had the 3rd highest batting average in the league (.288) and scored 878 runs (8th, SPIBL). The defense had the stingiest error total in the league with 68. This team would have won a lot more games had it not been for the bloated 6.44 ERA posted by the pitching staff, almost a full run higher than the next team (5.54, ATL). |
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