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2006 PREVIEW:NATIONAL LEAGUE EASTby Alan Lecher Atlanta Mets (62-100, 4th place)
Key Departures: Alfonso Soriano (2B), Garret Anderson (LF), Bob Howry (RP) What must go right: Most teams find themselves very envious of the quality starting rotation that the Atlanta Mets have from top to bottom this season. The Mets have a formidable 1-2 punch in Barry Zito (10-17, 6.11) and Derek Lowe (7-18, 6.44), both of whom are looking to rebound from forgettable 2005 seasons. Also returning to the mound are Jake Westbrook (10-11, 4.34), Bronson Arroyo (6-11, 5.76), and Jose Lima (9-11, 4.71), making them the only team in SPIBL to bring back all five starters from the previous season. B.J. Ryan (3.28, 27 SV, 116 K) once again will be closing games and hopes to have more chances to do so than last season when the Mets finished in last place, winning 62 games. Atlanta boasts one of the best defenses in the league, including an iron curtain on the left side of the infield in Mike Lowell and Adam Everett. Nothing will get by them. This factor should make Atlanta’s quality pitching staff that much stronger. Jay Witasick (5.10, 49 G) and Ray King (4.75, 65 G) will be setting up the ninth innings, while free agent signees Brian Meadows (3.56, 2 SV, BOS) and Rick White (1 IP, STL) will handle the middle frames. The Atlanta front office is very high on young 2B Jose Castillo (.261, 11 HR, 46 RBI, HOU) and is expected to lead a revamped offense that includes newcomers Lowell (.343, 41 HR, 121 RBI, MIL), Carl Everett (.298, 3 HR, 28 RBI, HOU), and Todd Walker (.256, 11 HR, 50 RBI, CHA), who is shifting to first base. Met faithful can rest easy as fan favorite Raul Ibanez (.303, 16 HR, 53 RBI) is returning and will be promoted to cleanup hitter. After two straight last place finishes in the NL East, GM Dan Laflin is counting on good defense and solid starting pitching to make a serious push in 2006. History has revealed this to be a winning combination. What could go wrong: One name comes to mind and that is Alfonso Soriano. Last year, he led the Mets in most offensive categories including homeruns, RBIs, runs scored, stolen bases, triples, and at bats. After being dealt this winter, his impact will surely be missed. Lowell was signed to alleviate this offensive loss, however the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has reported that he is unhappy in spring training about not getting his contract reworked upon his arrival. This may affect his productivity. The Mets are lacking in overall power and speed in their lineup and this will put a lot of pressure on their pitchers to carry the load. Despite the optimism about the starters, Westbrook had the lowest ERA in the bunch at 4.34 last year. If Atlanta wants a shot at a division title in 2006, the entire rotation will need to be below that by October. The X-Factor: Although not the prototypical cleanup hitter, Raul Ibanez is being asked to fill that role and provide the big hits when it matters the most. If he can record 100+ RBIs in 2006, Atlanta will be right in the thick of the playoff race. Numerically speaking: In 2006, Atlanta had the worst pitching staff in the National League with a 5.54 team ERA, the only NL team to have an ERA higher than 5. Baltimore Stars (88-74, 1st place)
Key Departures: Randy Johnson (SP), John Smoltz (RP), Rafael Furcal (SS), Mark Loretta (2B), Chipper Jones (3B), Craig Biggio (2B), Steve Finley (CF) What must go right: Three division titles, one NL pennant, two 100-win seasons, and one league championship. Yes, the Stars have had an amazing run over the first four years of SPIBL. The fewest wins that Baltimore has had thus far has been 88, just last year, and they were still one win away from another appearance in the world series. There has been a winning tradition under GM Mike Sorochen, however the organization said farewell to some big names this winter, signifying major changes to come. The baseball world was stunned when three-time Cy Young winner Randy Johnson was dealt to Kansas City for prospects. Two weeks prior, Baltimore fans watched SPIBL save leader John Smoltz get shipped to Los Angeles along with their entire middle infield (Loretta and Furcal). In their place are a crop of potential all-stars, such as Casey Kotchman (54 AB, .204), Russ Adams (69 AB, .493, TOR), Prince Fielder (R), and Rickie Weeks (R). All are expected to have an impact this season. Heavy hitter Lance Berkman (.285, 29 HR, 110 RBI) and Alexis Rios (.282, 1 HR, 38 RBI) are the only starting position players returning from last season. Staff ace Tom Glavine (11-10, 3.71) will be asked to mentor rookie prospects Felix Hernandez, Dustin McGowan, and Brandon League through their first turn in the big leagues. Other starters Pedro Astacio and Byung-Hyun Kim are coming off of injury-plagued seasons and look to re-establish themselves at the major league level. There are still jobs to be assigned on the Baltimore Stars for the 2006 season, especially in the bullpen, however if die-hard Star fans can wait out a season of lumps and bruises, the winning tradition will be restored in the very near future. What could go wrong: Off-season shoulder surgery has left strikeout specialist Kerry Wood’s season up in the air. There is now talk of moving him to the bullpen to help shore up some deficiencies in that area. It remains to be seen whether rookie starters Hernandez and McGowan will be able to last through a full big league season and if veterans like Jaret Wright (12-11, 4.07) and Paul Wilson (6-17, 6.73) can stay healthy. And the biggest question mark still has to be whether or not team leader Jeff Bagwell, who has been so consistent through the years, will return for another season. Without him, the Stars will be starving for motivation, besides aspirations for the #1 draft pick in 2007. Unfortunately, it appears that injuries may catch up to this team and their hopes of a record fourth straight trip to the postseason. The X-Factor: Lance Berkman may feel like his talents are being wasted this season in a Baltimore rebuilding year, but if he can keep his eyes on the future prize and continue to work hard, he may deliver yet another big season in 2006. Numerically speaking: The Baltimore Stars lost more players to free agency at the conclusion of the 2005 season than any other team (14). They were only able to re-sign three of them. Florida Slow-Players (69-93, 3rd place)
Key Departures: Dave Roberts (CF), Travis Lee (1B) What must go right: The Slow-Players have a very impressive top of the lineup. Brian Roberts (.231, 4 HR, 40 RBI, 42 SB) returns as Florida’s leadoff hitter and, after recent laser eye surgery, has said he is seeing the ball better than ever. Darin Erstad (.273, 6 HR, 49 RBI) looks to follow Roberts in the order and can do anything with the bat that GM Michael Geles asks of him. The third slot will most likely belong to Victor Martinez (.255, 18 HR, 65 RBI), who seems to get better every year. Newly signed right fielder Shawn Green (.269, 24 HR, 73 RBI, NYA) is the likely cleanup hitter, after all-star Scott Rolen was injured this winter in a freak farming accident. They will miss Rolen’s big bat in the everyday lineup, but are excited to give young up-and-comer Mark Teahen (R) a chance to win the job at third base. The strength of Florida’s ballclub lies in an experienced pitching staff. 15-game winner Shawn Estes (15-11, 4.91) returns to the rotation and is accompanied by the solid trio of Jon Garland (9-17, 5.26), Cliff Lee (5-18, 5.74), and Eric Milton (10-14, 4.07), all of which are looking at 2006 as a year of redemption. Matt Morris (11-12, 4.56, PIT) was acquired via free agency last month and is known as a big game pitcher. The last time he took the mound in the regular season, all he did was clinch a division title for the Conspiracy. #5 overall pick in the draft, Ervin Santana, is hoping to make the quick leap all the way to the big league level and secure a spot in the rotation as well. Florida’s other first rounder, Derrick Turnbow, has really impressed the front office and, as far as they’re concerned, the closer role is his to lose. Braden Looper is coming off his best year (2.60, 11 SV, 9-2) and returns as a viable setup man. It looks like the pieces are in place for the Florida Slow-Players in 2006. What could go wrong: With Rolen’s status uncertain, the lineup could be hurting in the run-scoring department. Power is definitely not a strong point for the Slow-Players, where it looks like the only batter with 30-homerun potential is Jeromy Burnitz (.307, 32 HR, 133 RBI), coming off a career year with Cleveland. The Slow-Players are going to be depending on a host of young ballplayers in key roles all season long, such as Teahen at 3B, Clint Barmes and Jason Bartlett at SS, Santana starting, and Turnbow closing. If any of these players struggle, Florida does not seem to have the depth in their minor league system to make up for it. The Florida franchise has never finished a season with more than 67 wins. It is apparent that this team is much better than their predecessors, but the question is how much better. Time will tell. The X-Factor: A very solid team defense will keep games low-scoring and help Florida to be competitive in the majority of contests. Of special note are the right side of the Slow-Player infield, comprised of the stellar gloves of Brian Roberts and Darin Erstad. Numerically speaking: Last season, Florida leadoff hitters combined for a paltry .228 batting average and a .309 OBP. Philadelphia Phanatics (88-74, 2nd place, wildcard)
Key Departures: Jason Varitek (C), Richie Sexson (1B), Jason Isringhausen (RP), Brad Penny (SP) What must go right: With division rival Baltimore looking to be in rebuilding mode, this could finally be the year that the Phanatics take a firm hold of the NL East division. Currently, no team in this division can boast the offensive potential that Philadelphia can. It starts with Miguel Cabrera (.269, 40 HR, 104 RBI), who is coming off a breakout year. Aramis Ramirez (.272, 30 HR, 107 RBI) also returns to make a very scary tandem in the heart of the Phanatic order. Carlos Guillen (.285, 16 HR, 89 RBI) and Luis Castillo (.296, 1 HR 36 RBI, 31 ST) are charged with table-setting and should handle that job well. David DeJesus (.325, 10 HR, 72 RBI) will be looking to build off of his very successful rookie campaign. He will be joined in the outfield by newcomer Kevin Mench (.282, 25 HR, 92 RBI), picked up in a trade with Boston. Their veteran starting rotation is comprised of two 2005 Cy Young candidates, one from each league. Jason Schmidt (17-12, 3.42, 319 K) hopes to not lose a beat this season after a brilliant 2005 and Kris Benson (19-5, 4.82) joins the squad from Oakland with more winning ways on his mind. Jeff Suppan (12-8, 3.66) and Javier Vazquez (11-11, 2.95) also return. The Philly bullpen is rebuilt this year after the departure of Jason Isringhausen and Esteban Yan. The closing duties belong to “Everyday” Eddie Guardado (4.39, 11 SV), while Scott Eyre (9 IP) will be given a chance to win the primary setup role. Philly also drafted some new faces - Brad Thompson, Fernando Rodney, and Roberto Hernandez - to fill out the bullpen. This team has one of the deepest benches in the league and coaches will be able to put players in opportunities where they can take advantage of individual strengths. Don’t look now, but the Philadelphia Phanatics might be making some noise in October. What could go wrong: It is hard to imagine that this group of starting pitchers can all repeat the career seasons they had one year ago. Fortunately for GM Mike Orenstein, they may not have to because this offense is going to score runs in bunches. 2005 MVP candidate Jason Varitek (traded to MIN) will be missed over the course of a full season. It’s always difficult to watch that much talent walk out the door. Career underachiever Eric Hinske (.213, 9 HR, 47 RBI, SFS) was added to fill the void at first base, but he more than likely will not come close to duplicating what the departed Richie Sexson, now healthy, could offer. Baltimore may not be an obstacle for Philly this season, but they now have to deal with the much-improved Florida and Atlanta ballclubs. The X-Factor: The catching tandem of Jason LaRue (.253, 3 HR, 9 RBI) and Javier Valentin (.173, 2 HR, 17 RBI, CLE) are an interesting combination and could result in a nice complement. These two have the potential to equal the power numbers that Philly got from their catcher slot in 2005. Numerically speaking: Besides the pitcher, the only spot in the batter order last year to NOT draw an intentional walk all year was the third spot. Philadelphia is the only team in SPIBL to not receive an intentional walk from their #3 batter. |
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