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2006 PREVIEW:NATIONAL LEAGUE WESTby Jason Kerns Anaheim Ants (81-81, 2nd place, wildcard)
Key Departures: Jason Giambi (1B), Francisco Cordero (RP) Team Overview: Last season, Anaheim was a team that had excellent pitching (second in the league with a 3.74 team ERA), but lacked the ability to score runs in droves. The team’s focus last year was to get to their bullpen as quickly as possibly with the hopes of hanging on to slim one or two run leads. Towards the end of the regular season and during the off-season, management felt it was a priority to bring in some guys that can hit and hit well. You will see almost an entirely new outfield at times, with Andruw Jones (.236, 28 HR, 90 RBI) as the only holdover from last year. Newly acquired Johnny Damon (.284, 27 HR, 66 RBI, HOU) is expected to start in left field, while Moises Alou (.263, 20 HR, 72 RBI) and Larry Walker (.337, 13 HR, 57 RBI, CLE) will platoon in RF and bring some offensive firepower to the lineup. Carlos Delgado (.230, 26 HR, 62 RBI) will hold down first base (acquired via trade late in the year from Seattle) and likely bat cleanup. Delgado’s bat will provide much needed protection for shortstop Miguel Tejada (.280, 32 HR, 100 RBI) and promising second basemen Chase Utley. “Their first six hitters in their lineup will likely be one of the most feared in all of baseball,” cited one scout. Despite having the second best team ERA in the league last year, their starting pitching was far from superior. Jason Johnson’s 9-10 mark (4.15 ERA) was the Ant’s best pitcher. Nate Robertson (13-7, 4.44, CHA/ANA) and Jeremy Bonderman (10-15, 3.94) showed hints of brilliance at times last season, but neither of them played the full season. This year’s starting five is currently set as Bonderman, Robertson, Brandon Claussen (5-2, 3.79), Danny Haren (4-0, 2.10), and newly acquired Chris Young (3-1, 1.31). The rotation has a lot of question marks, however management is only looking to get five or six innings out of them and then they will turn it over to their heralded bullpen. Francisco Cordero saved 40 games for them last year, however he is gone and now hard-throwing Brad Lidge (2.71, 28 SV) will assume the role. Anaheim bolstered their bullpen with relievers Matt Wise (5.68, COL), Chad Qualls (4.59, 2 SV, HOU), and Brian Fuentes (4.95, PIT) to join last year’s holdovers Cliff Politte (1.34, 2 SV) and Scot Shields (3.46, 7 SV) in a very deep bullpen. Critic’s Review: Some question the huge salaries of aging players like Carlos Delgado and Larry Walker, however management feels that the time to win is now and they can’t second-guess themselves. “If they had not acquired Delgado, then veterans like Walker, Damon, and Alou may not have wanted to come and play here,” said one scout. “They definitely raised the bar and have told everyone in the league that they are in this thing to win and win now.” This team will need to define itself early and everyone will need to establish their roles on the field and in the clubhouse in order for them to win the division. Starting pitching is where things will be won or lost for Anaheim this season. They certainly didn’t go out and attempt to acquire someone in the off-season to shore up this potential weak spot and by doing so, told their young staff that they have confidence in them to perform. If the team starts to fall behind in the division, then look for them to trade one or two of their prized prospects for some frontline pitching. Salary Cap / Prospect Outlook: Despite the huge amount of veterans in the starting lineup, don’t let that fool you in terms of the health of Anaheim’s minor league system. Some careful scouting and drafting has given Anaheim a bright future. The minor league system is led by Jeremy Hermida, who is the #4 overall prospect in baseball (according to Baseball America), along with Ryan Zimmerman (#15), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (#18), Carlos Quentin (OF), Russell Martin (#59), Kendry Morales (#78). Anaheim will get little help through free agency next season as they are right up against the cap through 2007, however once the contracts of Walker (17.0) and Alou (8.0) expire in 2007, they should be able to add at least two frontline players in 2008 through free agency. Colorado Gold Kings (80-82, 3rd place)
Key Departures: Kevin Millwood (SP), Vinny Castilla (3B), Miguel Batista (RP), Todd Jones (RP) Team Overview: Colorado did not have a problem last season scoring runs and did most of their offensive damage at home. They were 46-35 at Coors Field and, if not for a 2-8 finish to end the year, would have likely won their division. The development of young talent and the ability to sign big name pitching free agents over the next two years will determine a lot for the future of this franchise. After finishing last season with second to worst pitching staff in the National League, team management knew this was an area that needed addressing in the off-season. Colorado did just that in signing crafty veteran Kenny Rogers (9-15, 6.21) and relievers Akinori Otsuka (2.70, 4 SV, SDB), Mike Stanton (2.37, STL), and Jeff Nelson (5.22, 1 SV, TEX). These guys are certainly not the fountains of youth that Colorado will need to contend long-term in this division, but they do give them some hope to put up a fight for the 2006 division crown. Rogers and newly acquired Josh Fogg (12-17, 4.87, LAS) will join ace Livan Hernandez (19-10, 3.56) as the first three in the rotation. The other two spots will be a battle between Chris Capuano and rookies Brad Hennessey, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jason Vargas. Capuano, who was 4-8 with an embarrassing 8.19 ERA, has apparently developed a nice change-up in winter league ball and has shown great command of that pitch for the coaching staff in early spring drills. Despite last year’s sub-par performance, team management expects greater things from Capuano this year. Colorado had eight players total at least 10 home runs last season and all but Vinny Castilla return to this year’s squad. The offensive leaders will be Michael Young (.297, 23 HR, 70 RBI), Jim Edmonds (.287, 46 HR, 140 RBI) and, when healthy, Ryan Klesko (.324, 10 HR, 63 RBI). Morgan Ensberg (.281, 10 HR, 48 RBI) has shown flashes of potential and could become a major contributor to this team offensively in 2006. Colorado’s bullpen plans to be used often and regularly. They may in fact start the season by carrying 12 pitchers on their roster. Jose Valverde (4.31) returns to the team after having a team-high 26 saves in just 31 chances last season, however part-time closer Octavio Dotel blew 5 saves out of 11 chances, despite a respectable 2.89 ERA. Nelson, Otsuka, and Stanton will join a host of other viable relievers. Critic’s View: Aside from the signing of Matt Lawton (.275, 19 HR, 74 RBI, CLE), a clubhouse problem that apparently management was willing to overlook, the team did very little to upgrade themselves offensively. Ensberg will likely blossom this year into a very productive major league hitter, however the glory days of Klesko and Edmonds are behind them and the team doesn’t appear to have a plan in place to replace them. Pitching-wise, Rogers is good and could likely buy them a year or two, however no one is certain why they brought in Josh Fogg, other than he is likely all the team could afford. Their bullpen appears to be the weakest part of the team. Valverde and Otsuka will hold a few leads, but they won’t be able to pitch every day, so things could get very ugly in those middle innings. The team might benefit from trading veterans Kenny Rogers and Jim Edmonds for some younger talent and sucking this year up as a rebuilding year. In a division that is likely to be one of the strongest in baseball, they could be out of the race by June. Salary Cap / Prospect Outlook: The top prospects in the organization are Andy Laroche (#19 ranked prospect according to Baseball America), pitchers Anibel Sanchez (#40) and Adam Loewen (#45). With Ensberg signed through 2009, Laroche may either have to move positions or be traded. Colorado was right up against the salary cap this year and nearly 31.0 is going towards players that are no longer on the team. With almost 45.0 available in cap space next season and close to 70.0 in 2008, Colorado will be a major market player over the next two seasons and could be a worst-to-first candidate by 2008. Minnesota Moose (76-86, 4th place)
Key Departures: Angel Berroa (SS), Ugueth Urbina (RP), Mike Lieberthal (C) Team Overview: After finishing the 2004 season with an 85-77 mark, many had high hopes for Minnesota coming into the 2005 season, however several key injuries and some lackluster performances by others resulted in a last place finish for Minnesota’s most recent campaign. It was the second last place finish over the past three years for the Moose. The acquisition of some veteran pitching has brought renewed hope to this struggling franchise. New to this year’s staff will be Mike Mussina (12-11, 5.22, OAK), Vicente Padilla (9-7, 4.33, BOS), and Brad Penny (15-7, 3.18, PHI). They will join Bartolo Colon (11-13, 3.88) and Kelvim Escobar (13-9, 3.26) to form a very deep and experienced starting rotation. If anyone falters, then look for up and coming pitchers Scott Kazmir (1-0, 21 IP) or Jason Marquis (11-11, 4.01) to step in and assume a spot in the rotation. This season's success will likely rest on their ability to score runs and close out games. Last year’s team hit .241 for the year, scored just 661 runs, and stole a league-low 26 bases. “They seemed to have an inability to drive in runs at key moments,” said one general manager. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez led the team with 72 RBI, despite his .239 batting average, and will return to the lineup. “Minnesota has some bats in their lineup, but they never seemed to find any rhythm,” said one scout. Their offensive lineup includes returning starters Vernon Wells (.260, 23 HR, 65 RBI), Eric Chavez (.237, 34 HR, 101 RBI), Shannon Stewart (.288, 9 HR, 38 RBI), J.D. Drew (.270, 19 HR, 64 RBI), Alex Cintron (.235, 3 HR, 30 RBI), and Aaron Rowand (.294, 10 HR, 61 RBI). With all of that speed on the base paths, they should be much improved over last year’s squad in manufacturing runs. Jason Varitek (.325, 28 HR, 86 RBI, PHI) was brought in to replace Mike Lieberthal at catcher. Management hopes that his bat in the lineup and leadership on the field will be the difference in this year’s team. Lieberthal batted just .214 last year and opponents looked at him as almost an automatic out. That will change with Varitek’s explosive bat. Joe Nathan (2.10) was very effective in saving games last year. He recorded 31 saves in 35 chances, however the problem last year was in just getting to him. Julio Mateo (6.32, 2 SV), J.C. Romero (3.24, 7-1), and David Riske (4.15) have been penciled in as this year’s main setup team and should do very well in preserving leads for Nathan. Critic’s Review: Minnesota should win more games than they did last year, however with Anaheim and Seattle in their division, they will likely fall out of the playoff race by mid-season. Last year’s team lacked one dominant pitcher and Colon will now bring that missing piece to this year’s team. Young shortstop Felipe Lopez (R) could be a huge bonus to the front on the lineup and, if he performs like everyone expects of him, should get on base often in front of the big hitters like Chavez, Wells, and Drew. Health and depth will likely give this team the most problems at times during the season. Many of their hitters are free swingers and do not take pitchers deep into counts. Salary Cap / Prospect Outlook: Minnesota is reeling from Al Leiter’s hefty 13.9 paycheck this season and that money could have been surely used to shore up their bullpen or even give them another solid bat in the lineup. The team has invested heavily in Bartolo Colon (10.5 over 4 years), Brad Penny (8.5 over 4 years), and Mike Mussina (6.5 over 4 years). With Penny’s health problems and Mussina’s age, this could be an issue over the next few years. Several needs could present themselves next season and the team will have limited resources to address all of them in a timely manner. On the prospect front, they have Jason Kubel (OF), who is ranked #57 on the top 100 prospects by Baseball America, Jeff Mathis (C), and Josh Barfield (2B). Barfield appears to the long-term solution for them at second base, but he is at least one year away. Mathis is ready now, but with Varitek signed to a long-term deal, could be the subject of trade rumors over the course of the year. Seattle Iron Birds (81-81, 1st place)
Key Departures: Roger Clemens (SP), Joe Mauer (C), Carlos Lee (LF) Team Overview: Seattle’s strength last season was their starting pitching and really nothing else. Their pitching was certainly enough to win the division and push them two rounds in the playoffs, but they possessed glaring weaknesses offensively and in the bullpen. Both of these areas were addressed through trade and free agent acquisition and could likely be enough to make this team a contender for the world championship in 2006. Gone is closer Jose Mesa, whose contract expired at the end of last season, and in as closer is Jason Isringhausen (3.27, 20 SV, PHI). Mesa was very effective last season, converting 42 of 48 saves despite his 4.28 ERA, but management felt that his luck may not continue and chose not to pursue him in the free agent market. Scouts believe Isringhausen can bring some much-needed veteran leadership to the bullpen and, combined with setup man Rudy Seanez, Seattle could have one of the better bullpens in the division. Last year’s team batted only .246 and struck out over 1,000 times. Despite losing big bats in Carlos Lee, Wily Mo Pena, Carlos Delgado, and Joe Mauer, management feels that their team will be much better suited to score runs this year. Prospects Chris Shelton (45 AB, .200) and Jeremy Reed (59 AB, .407) have already been penciled in as starters and newcomers Mark Grudzielanek (.295, 7 HR, 27 RBI, NYA) and Gary Sheffield (.295, 48 HR, 140 RBI, PIT) combined with Jimmy Rollins (.287, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 28 SB) and Bill Mueller (.243, 8 HR, 40 RBI) should put the ball in play more this year and avoid those double plays which seemed to haunt last year’s squad. Seattle’s starting pitching is the envy of most every other team in the league. Despite the loss of Roger Clemens to free agency, the team is even more optimistic about the depth of this year’s squad. Dontrelle Willis (8-10, 5.04), Roy Oswalt (14-12, 3.53), Freddy Garcia (12-11, 2.94), and Jose Contreras (8-6, 4.12) will anchor this year’s rotation while rookie Zach Duke and free agent acquisition Jamie Moyer (4-3, 2.62, CHA/ANA) will battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. Critic’s Review: This team must learn to score runs and stop relying upon their starting pitching to win games. With Clemens departure, the offense will be expected to win more games. They must not be a station-to-station team like last year and improve upon their stolen bases (ranked 20th in 2005) and extra base hits (20th in slugging). Seattle should win the division if they can improve their team batting average by at least 20 points, otherwise they will just contend for the wildcard and let Anaheim take the division. Salary Cap / Prospect Outlook: Unfortunately for the rest of the division, Seattle will likely be a force for the next several years. Their minor league system has the two top-ranked prospects in baseball (according to Baseball America) in Delmon Young (OF) and Justin Upton (SS). To go along with these two diamond gems, they also have Howie Kendrick (#12), Bobby Jenks (#24), and Homer Bailey (#38). Although they are right up against the cap in 2006, they will free up about 15.0 next season when the contracts of Moyer and Seanez expire and will have about 40.0 available in 2008 to help sign restricted free agent Dontrelle Willis.
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